If it was a sunny day, perhaps the weather was nice. And it was.
But that was in Florida. To be more specific, it was an 85 degree day in August in Florida.
What's the point?
Weeks ago, Chicago enjoyed a long-awaited weekend of nice weather. There was an 80 degree day that Saturday, as a matter of fact.
Once Monday hit, the Chicago Tribune released a report detailing that at least 36 people were shot in Chicago in 36 hours, with more than half of the shootings occurring over a half-day period stretching into early Sunday.
According to the report, Chicago Police Department spokesman Adam Collins was asked on whether warm weather contributed to the weekend shooting spree. It was a question he declined to answer.
Is the correlation fair between weather and violence?
According to data from The Death Penalty Information Center, the site had information on murder rates per 100,000 people as recent as 2012.
Here was the top 10:
- Louisiana 10.8
- Mississippi 7.4
- Alabama 7.1
- Michigan 7
- South Carolina 6.9
- Missouri 6.5
- Maryland 6.3
- Delaware 6.2
- Tennessee 6
- Arkansas/Georgia 5.9
I wanted to find average temperatures. but since most of these states with high rates are from the South - areas that endure warm weather most of the year - I had to narrow it down.
So instead, I focused on finding average temperatures in the summer. Doing this would allow me to see if there was a connection from what I found and the list from above.
Here is the list from Current Results:
- Louisiana/Texas 81.1
- Florida 81
- Oklahoma 79.6
- Mississippi 79.5
- Arkansas 78.8
- Georgia 78.7
- Alabama 78.6
- South Carolina 78.4
- Arizona 78.1
- Kansas 76.4
Louisiana had the highest murder rate and, as previously mentioned, tied for the highest average temperature during the Summer. Meantime, so did Texas. But Texas was 23rd in murder rate per 100,000 people. Kansas was considerably lower. Oklahoma, Arizona and Florida were just outside the top 10.
I, then, read an article from The Wall Street Journal posted back in July 2010 called "More Crime in the Summer Heat, NYC Data Says No?"
James Alan Fox, a professor of criminology at Northeastern University, conducted a study outside his home in Columbus, Ohio. He found that violent crime was at its highest when temperatures are in the mid 80s; however, it starts dropping past 90 degrees.
There was also a finding that in New York City, that year, the week of June 21 to June 27 saw an index crime at 2,125. The average high temperature was 88.9 degrees, and the daily average temperature was 80.3 degrees. Between July 5 and July 11, it was the hottest week of the year, yet crime dipped by six percent. The average high was 94 degrees, and the daily temperature was 85.3 degrees.
There's no clear-cut answer.
What about considering poverty?
As Mr. Fox said, what if it's that due to nice weather, people are just out and about, thus meaning more potential victims?
Or instead of any scapegoat, how about holding people accountable?
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